As shown in the paper, the transition of K value in Japan is extremely stable. There is no increase seen in the United States nor an infection rate convergence due to measures such as the restriction of social activities seen in some European countries. There is no sign of such re-infection. From April 3 to 24, the slope is well approximated by a straight line of -0.0283, and the subsequent trends have also followed the expected line of k = 0.9185. If the situation continues smoothly, it will reach K = 0.05, in mid-May , the level at which declarations of convergence of infection have been issued in many countries.
Figure 3 below shows a straight line fit, the forecast curve obtained from the fit results and the observed values after April 25 . d = 0 corresponds to April 1st and d = 30 corresponds to May 1st.
Samuel Huntington describes the world as Western Europe, Eastern Orthodox Church, Islam, Africa, Latin America, Chinese, Hindu, Buddhist, and Japanese. It is divided into 9 civilizations.
Certainly, Japanese culture is difficult to understand from the outside, and this Huntington theory is intuitively understandable. However, since there are various other countries in the world, there remains a question as to whether it is true or is there numerical support.
Therefore, I decided to make a map using Hofstede’s cultural value to illustrate this situation of Japanese culture’s isolation.
An index for measuring the cultural distance between countries is the Kogut-Shin index. In order to quantify the risk of a company’s overseas expansion, it is defined as follows using the Hofstede’s index.
here,
CDij is the cultural distance between i-country and j-country, Ijk is the i-country k-th Hofstede index Vk is the variance of the k-th Hofstede index
Kogout and Singh have shown that this index correlates with the percentage of joint venture choices that firms make when expanding abroad. However, if the sum of squares is defined as a distance as it is, it does not match the mathematical concept of distance, so it is better to take the square root.
The figure above shows a map of Spain and its neighboring countries using this distance. 31 countries are within the distance of 1 from Spain. In the figure, the Y-axis is an indicator of individualism vs. collectiveism, and the higher the level, the stronger individualism. The X-axis is the perspective related to other indicators, the countries with strong masculinity on the right (countries with gender roles), and the countries with strong femininity on the left.
The map below is drawn around Japan:
This time, Hungary is the only one country within the distance of 1 from Japan.
If you calculate how many countries (or areas) are included in this distance = 1 in the countries or areas where the Hofstede index is measured, it will be as follows:
Country name
Number of neighboring countries
Neighboring countries
Brazil
34
Turkey, Croatia, Spain, Pakistan, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Thailand, Morocco, Peru, Malta, Poland, Chile, Uruguay, Mexico, Czech Republic, El Salvador, Iran, Slovenia, Greece, France, India, Portugal, Indonesia, Colombia, Luxembourg, Venezuela, Philippines, Trinidad and Tobago, Arab countries, Bangladesh, East Africa, Argentina, West Africa
Spain
31
Turkey, Uruguay, Thailand, Malta, Brazil, France, Croatia, Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Poland, Bulgaria, Argentina, Greece, Chile, Portugal, Slovenia, Pakistan, Serbia, Romania, Peru, Morocco, Arab Countries, El Salvador, Iran, Finland , Italy, Belgium, East Africa, Israel, Estonia, Bangladesh
Turkey
31
Uruguay, Brazil, Croatia, Spain, Bulgaria, Serbia, Malta, Romania, Chile, Peru, Pakistan, Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, Thailand, El Salvador, Poland, Arab Countries, Argentina, Bangladesh, Czech Republic, France, East Africa, Morocco, Mexico, Iran, Luxembourg, Colombia, Russia, Indonesia, India
Pakistan
31
Thailand, Turkey, Peru, Spain, Trinidad And Tobago, Serbia, Taiwan, Slovenia, Vietnam, Romania, Uruguay, Portugal, Brazil, Bangladesh, East Africa, Croatia, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Chile, El Salvador, Colombia, Arab Countries, Iran, Hong Kong , Argentina, Mexico, Czech Republic, Greece, Luxembourg, West Africa, Morocco
Croatia
30
Turkey, Serbia, Romania, Spain, Slovenia, Pakistan, Thailand, Russia, Malta, Czech Republic, Indonesia, France, Peru, Uruguay, Portugal, Greece, El Salvador, Taiwan, Poland, South Korea, Luxembourg, India, Mexico, Morocco, Bulgaria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Chile, East Africa, Arab countries
Arab countries
29
Morocco, Mexico, Brazil, Iran, Bangladesh, Philippines, Turkey, Thailand, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, El Salvador, Argentina, Poland, Croatia, Romania, India, Serbia, Uruguay, Chile, Spain, Pakistan, Trinidad And Tobago, Malaysia, Portugal , Malta, Indonesia, West Africa, East Africa
Thailand
27
Turkey, Trinidad And Tobago, Uruguay, Vietnam, East Africa, Chile, Peru, Pakistan, Iran, Brazil, West Africa, El Salvador, Bangladesh, Arab Countries, Croatia, Slovenia, Morocco, Indonesia, Portugal, Spain, Colombia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania , Argentina, Mexico, India
Bangladesh
27
Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Croatia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Turkey, Serbia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Mexico, Romania, Vietnam, Bulgaria, Venezuela, Peru, Colombia, Morocco, Iran, Chile, El Salvador, Spain, Trinidad And Tobago, East Africa, Arab countries, West Africa
Peru
27
Portugal, Uruguay, Thailand, Turkey, Serbia, Slovenia, Romania, Spain, Venezuela, Trinidad And Tobago, El Salvador, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Pakistan, Arab Countries, East Africa, Argentina, Croatia, Mexico, Morocco, Iran, West Africa, Greece , Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Malta
East Africa
27
Thailand, Iran, West Africa, Bangladesh, Arab Countries, Brazil, Pakistan, Morocco, Vietnam, Trinidad And Tobago, Indonesia, Peru, Chile, India, Turkey, Croatia, Hong Kong, Philippines, El Salvador, Spain, Colombia, Argentina, Slovenia, Malaysia, Mexico, Uruguay, Bulgaria
El Salvador
26
Peru, Portugal, Uruguay, Turkey, Thailand, Serbia, Slovenia, Greece, Morocco, Mexico, Pakistan, Romania, Iran, Spain, Venezuela, Malta, Trinidad And Tobago, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Arab countries, Croatia, West Africa, East Africa, Bangladesh
Bulgaria
25
Croatia, Turkey, Serbia, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan, Czech Republic, France, Malta, Chile, Indonesia, Greece, Thailand, Peru, Uruguay, Portugal, Luxembourg, Brazil, Bangladesh, Belgium, East Africa
Luxembourg
25
Switzerland, Spain, Malta, Turkey, New Zealand, Poland, Netherlands, Pakistan, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Estonia, France, Finland, Lithuania, Canada, Israel, Belgium, Brazil, Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Argentina, Hungary
Uruguay
24
Portugal, El Salvador, Chile, Peru, Turkey, Spain, Argentina, Greece, Malta, Brazil, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Thailand, Morocco, Poland, Arab countries, Romania, Iran, Colombia, Mexico, Bulgaria, Pakistan, East Africa
Chile
24
Peru, Portugal, El Salvador, Slovenia, Uruguay, Thailand, Turkey, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, Pakistan, Romania, Iran, Morocco, Malta, Greece, Colombia, Brazil, East Africa, Bulgaria, Arab Countries, Argentina, West Africa, Bangladesh
Malta
24
Spain, Poland, Turkey, Uruguay, Portugal, Serbia, Romania, Morocco, Slovenia, Peru, France, Greece, Brazil, Argentina, Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Croatia, Belgium, Italy, Bulgaria, Chile, El Salvador, Israel, Arab countries
Morocco
24
Turkey, Thailand, Peru, Poland, Uruguay, Trinidad And Tobago, Philippines, Spain, Venezuela, Pakistan, Arab Countries, Iran, Argentina, West Africa, Mexico, Brazil, East Africa, Colombia, El Salvador, Bangladesh, Chile, India, Malta, Croatia
Serbia
23
Turkey, Slovenia, Uruguay, Spain, Thailand, Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Russia, Bangladesh, Peru, Chile, El Salvador, Portugal, Greece, Arab countries, Pakistan, Mexico, Malta, Indonesia, Poland, France
Mexico
23
Venezuela, Morocco, Poland, Peru, Turkey, Philippines, Serbia, Romania, Uruguay, Pakistan, Thailand, Trinidad And Tobago, Arab countries, Colombia, Brazil, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Argentina, West Africa, Greece, Iran, Croatia, East Africa
Romania
23
Serbia, Turkey, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Uruguay, Thailand, Croatia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Chile, Arab countries, Peru, Portugal, El Salvador, Mexico, Greece, Pakistan, Malta, Poland, France, Indonesia
Argentina
22
Morocco, Uruguay, Poland, Iran, Spain, Malta, Turkey, Brazil, Peru, El Salvador, Greece, Colombia, Mexico, Portugal, Trinidad And Tobago, Chile, Israel, Thailand, Pakistan, Luxembourg, Arab States, East Africa
Iran
20
Morocco, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Peru, Turkey, Uruguay, Spain, Pakistan, Mexico, East Africa, Arab countries, West Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Colombia, Finland, Bangladesh, India
Indonesia
19
Vietnam, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Philippines, Serbia, Turkey, Romania, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, East Africa, India, Croatia, China, Brazil, Bulgaria, Arab countries
Columbia
19
Venezuela, Mexico, Peru, El Salvador, Trinidad And Tobago, Morocco, Pakistan, Thailand, Iran, Uruguay, Turkey, Portugal, Arab Countries, West Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Bangladesh, East Africa, Chile
Czech
19
Luxembourg, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Malta, Switzerland, Turkey, Poland, Estonia, India, Hungary, Pakistan, Taiwan, Lithuania, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia
Poland
19
Spain, Turkey, Uruguay, Romania, Serbia, Malta, Argentina, Brazil, Greece, France, Mexico, Italy, Morocco, Czech Republic, Arab countries, Croatia, Hungary, Belgium, Luxembourg
Portugal
19
Uruguay, Slovenia, Turkey, Spain, Serbia, Thailand, Romania, El Salvador, Chile, Peru, Greece, Brazil, Croatia, Malta, Argentina, Bulgaria, Pakistan, Arab countries, Colombia
India
17
Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Morocco, Singapore, Iran, Turkey, Thailand, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, East Africa, Brazil, Arab Countries, Czech Republic, Croatia, China
Greece
17
Malta, Turkey, Uruguay, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Serbia, Peru, Romania, Mexico, Pakistan, Brazil, Argentina, El Salvador, Croatia, Bulgaria, Chile
Slovenia
17
Turkey, Thailand, Uruguay, Spain, Chile, Croatia, Portugal, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Peru, Brazil, El Salvador, Pakistan, Russia, East Africa, Malta
West Africa
17
Arab countries, Iran, Morocco, Thailand, Trinidad And Tobago, Colombia, Philippines, Bangladesh, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico, El Salvador, Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Pakistan, East Africa
France
16
Malta, Spain, Luxembourg, Poland, Turkey, Italy, Russia, Romania, Lithuania, Serbia, Belgium, Czech Republic, Croatia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Estonia
Republic of Trinidad and Tobago
15
Venezuela, Iran, Colombia, East Africa, West Africa, Thailand, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Argentina, Arab Countries, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Brazil, Mexico
Italy
14
Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, Malta, Spain, United States, Hungary, Czech Republic, Germany, Belgium, France, Canada, United Kingdom, Austria
Finland
13
Norway, Netherlands, Latvia, Luxembourg, Israel, Sweden, New Zealand, Spain, Lithuania, Iran, Canada, Denmark, Estonia
Philippines
12
Venezuela, Malaysia, Arab Countries, Bangladesh, India, West Africa, Mexico, Morocco, East Africa, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Brazil
Venezuela
11
Colombia, Mexico, Arab countries, West Africa, Bangladesh, Peru, Philippines, Morocco, El Salvador, Trinidad And Tobago, Brazil
最初のグラフは、最近の死者数が最も多い10ヶ国です。 各国は自国の医療システムの崩壊を避けることに必死ですが、これらの死者数の背景にどの程度の患者がいるのかを考えてみました。 Le Mondeの3月20日付報道によると、感染確認者10,995、入院者4,461（内重症者1,122）、退院1,300、自宅隔離5,000、死者372です。死者数の12倍の入院患者、同じく3倍の重症者がいる計算です。この比率で単純に推測すると、昨日１日の新たな入院者数は、死者数（112）の12倍の1,300人あまりということになり、その4分の1の336人が重症だということです。
