「日本におけるK値の推移について」(抜粋)

このページの内容は、「K 値で読み解くCOVID-19の感染状況と今後の推移」からの抜粋です。詳細は上記論文を御一読されることをお勧めします。
なお、K値に関する解説動画もこちらにあります。

日本におけるK値の推移について

論文中で示したとおり日本における K 値の推移は極めて安定で、ヨーロッパのいくつかの国で見られたような社会活動の制限等の施策による感染収束速度の増加もなければ、米国で見られるような感染再拡大の兆候も見られない。4 月 3 日から 24 日にかけては、傾きが-0.0283の直線でよく近似され、それ以降の推移も k=0.9185 の予想線に沿って推移している。このまま順調な推移が継続すれば、5 月中旬には多くの国で感染収束宣言が出ているレベルであるK=0.05に達するであろう。
次の図 3 に直線によるフィット、そのフィット結果から求めた 4 月 25 日以降の予想曲線と観測値を示す。d=0 が 4 月 1 日に対応し、d=30 が 5 月 1 日に対応する。

Changes in K value in Japan

As shown in the paper, the transition of K value in Japan is extremely stable. There is no increase seen in the United States nor an infection rate convergence due to measures such as the restriction of social activities seen in some European countries. There is no sign of such re-infection. From April 3 to 24, the slope is well approximated by a straight line of -0.0283, and the subsequent trends have also followed the expected line of k = 0.9185. If the situation continues smoothly, it will reach K = 0.05, in mid-May , the level at which declarations of convergence of infection have been issued in many countries.

Figure 3 below shows a straight line fit, the forecast curve obtained from the fit results and the observed values after April 25 . d = 0 corresponds to April 1st and d = 30 corresponds to May 1st.

日本の新型コロナの死亡率は、世界基準と比べてどこまで高いのか?

ウイルスには感染性と致死性の2面があって、前者で日本はうまくやっているが致死性ではそうでもない。うまくやっているのはどこか?

これを以前レポートしたが、善戦している台湾やシンガポールなどが抜けていて、自分ながら不満だった。

問題は死者数を32以上に限定したことだ。そこで今回は死者数4以上で調べ直した(死亡者3以下の国は今回も除外する(57ヶ国、人口で3.5億人))。

分類する指標に最近話題のK値(=直近1週間の感染者数/累積感染者数)を使う。

まず感染を封じ込めた国として、K<0.1 の77ヶ国(人口:29.2億人)を調べると、表のようになる。

めでたく台湾が入る(死亡率:1.59%)が、トップはアイスランド(死亡率:0.55%)だ。

アイスランドは、感染への初動が非常に早く、かつ、人口1,000人当り170回のPCR検査をした国である。感染者全員を見つけ出し適切な処置を施せば、新型コロナの致死率は1%を切ることができるということだ。

まあ、分母を大きくすればそこまで行くということなのだが、限界値を実績で示したことは重要だ。

感染者の8割は無症状~軽症なのだから、治療が本当に必要な患者だけを選び出す究極の検出手段があったとすれば、死亡率は 0.55%/20% = 2.8% となということだ。

逆に言えば、2.8% 以上の死亡率の国では、死なせなくてもよかった命があったということだ。

表で2.8%以下の国々は、そうしたことがあったとは言えない国々だ。

ここに日本は入っていないが、ダイヤモンド・プリンセス号は入っている。ということは、乗船者数千人に対象を絞れば、日本には対応能力があるが、国民全員となると、対応する組織力がないことを物語っている。

Quantify the isolation of Japanese culture and map it

May 12, 2014 Masaharu Kitaoka

Samuel Huntington describes the world as Western Europe, Eastern Orthodox Church, Islam, Africa, Latin America, Chinese, Hindu, Buddhist, and Japanese. It is divided into 9 civilizations.

Certainly, Japanese culture is difficult to understand from the outside, and this Huntington theory is intuitively understandable. However, since there are various other countries in the world, there remains a question as to whether it is true or is there numerical support.

Therefore, I decided to make a map using Hofstede’s cultural value to illustrate this situation of Japanese culture’s isolation.

An index for measuring the cultural distance between countries is the Kogut-Shin index. In order to quantify the risk of a company’s overseas expansion, it is defined as follows using the Hofstede’s index.

here,

CDij is the cultural distance between i-country and j-country,
Ijk is the i-country k-th Hofstede index
Vk is the variance of the k-th Hofstede index

Kogout and Singh have shown that this index correlates with the percentage of joint venture choices that firms make when expanding abroad. However, if the sum of squares is defined as a distance as it is, it does not match the mathematical concept of distance, so it is better to take the square root.

The figure above shows a map of Spain and its neighboring countries using this distance. 31 countries are within the distance of 1 from Spain. In the figure, the Y-axis is an indicator of individualism vs. collectiveism, and the higher the level, the stronger individualism. The X-axis is the perspective related to other indicators, the countries with strong masculinity on the right (countries with gender roles), and the countries with strong femininity on the left.

The map below is drawn around Japan:

This time, Hungary is the only one country within the distance of 1 from Japan.

If you calculate how many countries (or areas) are included in this distance = 1 in the countries or areas where the Hofstede index is measured, it will be as follows:

Country name

Number of neighboring countries

Neighboring countries

Brazil

34

Turkey, Croatia, Spain, Pakistan, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Thailand, Morocco, Peru, Malta, Poland, Chile, Uruguay, Mexico, Czech Republic, El Salvador, Iran, Slovenia, Greece, France, India, Portugal, Indonesia, Colombia, Luxembourg, Venezuela, Philippines, Trinidad and Tobago, Arab countries, Bangladesh, East Africa, Argentina, West Africa

Spain

31

Turkey, Uruguay, Thailand, Malta, Brazil, France, Croatia, Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Poland, Bulgaria, Argentina, Greece, Chile, Portugal, Slovenia, Pakistan, Serbia, Romania, Peru, Morocco, Arab Countries, El Salvador, Iran, Finland , Italy, Belgium, East Africa, Israel, Estonia, Bangladesh

Turkey

31

Uruguay, Brazil, Croatia, Spain, Bulgaria, Serbia, Malta, Romania, Chile, Peru, Pakistan, Greece, Slovenia, Portugal, Thailand, El Salvador, Poland, Arab Countries, Argentina, Bangladesh, Czech Republic, France, East Africa, Morocco, Mexico, Iran, Luxembourg, Colombia, Russia, Indonesia, India

Pakistan

31

Thailand, Turkey, Peru, Spain, Trinidad And Tobago, Serbia, Taiwan, Slovenia, Vietnam, Romania, Uruguay, Portugal, Brazil, Bangladesh, East Africa, Croatia, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Chile, El Salvador, Colombia, Arab Countries, Iran, Hong Kong , Argentina, Mexico, Czech Republic, Greece, Luxembourg, West Africa, Morocco

Croatia

30

Turkey, Serbia, Romania, Spain, Slovenia, Pakistan, Thailand, Russia, Malta, Czech Republic, Indonesia, France, Peru, Uruguay, Portugal, Greece, El Salvador, Taiwan, Poland, South Korea, Luxembourg, India, Mexico, Morocco, Bulgaria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Chile, East Africa, Arab countries

Arab countries

29

Morocco, Mexico, Brazil, Iran, Bangladesh, Philippines, Turkey, Thailand, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela, El Salvador, Argentina, Poland, Croatia, Romania, India, Serbia, Uruguay, Chile, Spain, Pakistan, Trinidad And Tobago, Malaysia, Portugal , Malta, Indonesia, West Africa, East Africa

Thailand

27

Turkey, Trinidad And Tobago, Uruguay, Vietnam, East Africa, Chile, Peru, Pakistan, Iran, Brazil, West Africa, El Salvador, Bangladesh, Arab Countries, Croatia, Slovenia, Morocco, Indonesia, Portugal, Spain, Colombia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania , Argentina, Mexico, India

Bangladesh

27

Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Croatia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Turkey, Serbia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Mexico, Romania, Vietnam, Bulgaria, Venezuela, Peru, Colombia, Morocco, Iran, Chile, El Salvador, Spain, Trinidad And Tobago, East Africa, Arab countries, West Africa

Peru

27

Portugal, Uruguay, Thailand, Turkey, Serbia, Slovenia, Romania, Spain, Venezuela, Trinidad And Tobago, El Salvador, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Pakistan, Arab Countries, East Africa, Argentina, Croatia, Mexico, Morocco, Iran, West Africa, Greece , Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Malta

East Africa

27

Thailand, Iran, West Africa, Bangladesh, Arab Countries, Brazil, Pakistan, Morocco, Vietnam, Trinidad And Tobago, Indonesia, Peru, Chile, India, Turkey, Croatia, Hong Kong, Philippines, El Salvador, Spain, Colombia, Argentina, Slovenia, Malaysia, Mexico, Uruguay, Bulgaria

El Salvador

26

Peru, Portugal, Uruguay, Turkey, Thailand, Serbia, Slovenia, Greece, Morocco, Mexico, Pakistan, Romania, Iran, Spain, Venezuela, Malta, Trinidad And Tobago, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Arab countries, Croatia, West Africa, East Africa, Bangladesh

Bulgaria

25

Croatia, Turkey, Serbia, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan, Czech Republic, France, Malta, Chile, Indonesia, Greece, Thailand, Peru, Uruguay, Portugal, Luxembourg, Brazil, Bangladesh, Belgium, East Africa

Luxembourg

25

Switzerland, Spain, Malta, Turkey, New Zealand, Poland, Netherlands, Pakistan, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Estonia, France, Finland, Lithuania, Canada, Israel, Belgium, Brazil, Austria, Croatia, Bulgaria, Latvia, Argentina, Hungary

Uruguay

24

Portugal, El Salvador, Chile, Peru, Turkey, Spain, Argentina, Greece, Malta, Brazil, Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Thailand, Morocco, Poland, Arab countries, Romania, Iran, Colombia, Mexico, Bulgaria, Pakistan, East Africa

Chile

24

Peru, Portugal, El Salvador, Slovenia, Uruguay, Thailand, Turkey, Croatia, Spain, Serbia, Pakistan, Romania, Iran, Morocco, Malta, Greece, Colombia, Brazil, East Africa, Bulgaria, Arab Countries, Argentina, West Africa, Bangladesh

Malta

24

Spain, Poland, Turkey, Uruguay, Portugal, Serbia, Romania, Morocco, Slovenia, Peru, France, Greece, Brazil, Argentina, Czech Republic, Luxembourg, Croatia, Belgium, Italy, Bulgaria, Chile, El Salvador, Israel, Arab countries

Morocco

24

Turkey, Thailand, Peru, Poland, Uruguay, Trinidad And Tobago, Philippines, Spain, Venezuela, Pakistan, Arab Countries, Iran, Argentina, West Africa, Mexico, Brazil, East Africa, Colombia, El Salvador, Bangladesh, Chile, India, Malta, Croatia

Serbia

23

Turkey, Slovenia, Uruguay, Spain, Thailand, Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Russia, Bangladesh, Peru, Chile, El Salvador, Portugal, Greece, Arab countries, Pakistan, Mexico, Malta, Indonesia, Poland, France

Mexico

23

Venezuela, Morocco, Poland, Peru, Turkey, Philippines, Serbia, Romania, Uruguay, Pakistan, Thailand, Trinidad And Tobago, Arab countries, Colombia, Brazil, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Argentina, West Africa, Greece, Iran, Croatia, East Africa

Romania

23

Serbia, Turkey, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Uruguay, Thailand, Croatia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Bangladesh, Chile, Arab countries, Peru, Portugal, El Salvador, Mexico, Greece, Pakistan, Malta, Poland, France, Indonesia

Argentina

22

Morocco, Uruguay, Poland, Iran, Spain, Malta, Turkey, Brazil, Peru, El Salvador, Greece, Colombia, Mexico, Portugal, Trinidad And Tobago, Chile, Israel, Thailand, Pakistan, Luxembourg, Arab States, East Africa

Iran

20

Morocco, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Peru, Turkey, Uruguay, Spain, Pakistan, Mexico, East Africa, Arab countries, West Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Colombia, Finland, Bangladesh, India

Indonesia

19

Vietnam, Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Philippines, Serbia, Turkey, Romania, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, East Africa, India, Croatia, China, Brazil, Bulgaria, Arab countries

Columbia

19

Venezuela, Mexico, Peru, El Salvador, Trinidad And Tobago, Morocco, Pakistan, Thailand, Iran, Uruguay, Turkey, Portugal, Arab Countries, West Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Bangladesh, East Africa, Chile

Czech

19

Luxembourg, Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Malta, Switzerland, Turkey, Poland, Estonia, India, Hungary, Pakistan, Taiwan, Lithuania, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia

Poland

19

Spain, Turkey, Uruguay, Romania, Serbia, Malta, Argentina, Brazil, Greece, France, Mexico, Italy, Morocco, Czech Republic, Arab countries, Croatia, Hungary, Belgium, Luxembourg

Portugal

19

Uruguay, Slovenia, Turkey, Spain, Serbia, Thailand, Romania, El Salvador, Chile, Peru, Greece, Brazil, Croatia, Malta, Argentina, Bulgaria, Pakistan, Arab countries, Colombia

India

17

Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Morocco, Singapore, Iran, Turkey, Thailand, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, East Africa, Brazil, Arab Countries, Czech Republic, Croatia, China

Greece

17

Malta, Turkey, Uruguay, Poland, Spain, Portugal, Serbia, Peru, Romania, Mexico, Pakistan, Brazil, Argentina, El Salvador, Croatia, Bulgaria, Chile

Slovenia

17

Turkey, Thailand, Uruguay, Spain, Chile, Croatia, Portugal, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania, Peru, Brazil, El Salvador, Pakistan, Russia, East Africa, Malta

West Africa

17

Arab countries, Iran, Morocco, Thailand, Trinidad And Tobago, Colombia, Philippines, Bangladesh, Peru, Venezuela, Mexico, El Salvador, Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Pakistan, East Africa

France

16

Malta, Spain, Luxembourg, Poland, Turkey, Italy, Russia, Romania, Lithuania, Serbia, Belgium, Czech Republic, Croatia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Estonia

Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

15

Venezuela, Iran, Colombia, East Africa, West Africa, Thailand, Morocco, Pakistan, Peru, Argentina, Arab Countries, Bangladesh, El Salvador, Brazil, Mexico

Italy

14

Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, Malta, Spain, United States, Hungary, Czech Republic, Germany, Belgium, France, Canada, United Kingdom, Austria

Finland

13

Norway, Netherlands, Latvia, Luxembourg, Israel, Sweden, New Zealand, Spain, Lithuania, Iran, Canada, Denmark, Estonia

Philippines

12

Venezuela, Malaysia, Arab Countries, Bangladesh, India, West Africa, Mexico, Morocco, East Africa, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Brazil

Venezuela

11

Colombia, Mexico, Arab countries, West Africa, Bangladesh, Peru, Philippines, Morocco, El Salvador, Trinidad And Tobago, Brazil

Estonia

10

Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Finland, France, Switzerland, Spain, Czech Republic

Switzerland

10

Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Austria, United Kingdom, Hungary, Canada, New Zealand, Estonia

new Zealand

10

United States, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Ireland, United Kingdom, Finland, Israel, Luxembourg, Austria

Vietnam

10

Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore, East Africa, India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Pakistan

Hong Kong

10

Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, China, Bangladesh, East Africa

Canada

9

United States, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Ireland, Finland, Luxembourg, Italy, Switzerland, Australia

Germany

9

Switzerland, Luxembourg, Italy, Hungary, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Austria, Estonia, Belgium

Belgium

9

France, Czech Republic, Italy, Malta, Luxembourg, Spain, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria

Malaysia

9

Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Arab countries, West Africa, East Africa

England

8

USA, New Zealand, Ireland, Switzerland, Italy, Canada, Australia, Germany

Netherlands

8

Sweden, Norway, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Denmark, Luxembourg

Hungary

8

Italy, Switzerland, Japan, Poland, Luxembourg, Germany, Czech Republic, Austria

Russia

8

Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, South Korea, France

Israel

7

Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, Malta, Finland, Austria, Argentina

Austria

7

Switzerland, Germany, Israel, Luxembourg, Hungary, Italy, New Zealand

Latvia

7

Netherlands, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, Luxembourg, Estonia, Finland

Lithuania

7

Netherlands, Luxembourg, Estonia, Latvia, Finland, Czech Republic, France

America

6

Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Ireland, United Kingdom, Italy

Taiwan

6

South Korea, Bulgaria, Pakistan, Croatia, Indonesia, Czech Republic

Ireland

5

New Zealand, USA, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom

Australia

5

United States, Canada, New Zealand, Ireland, United Kingdom

Singapore

5

Vietnam, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, India

Sweden

5

Denmark, Norway, Netherlands, Latvia, Finland

Norway

5

Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Latvia

China

5

Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, India

Denmark

4

Sweden, Norway, Finland, Netherlands

Korea

4

Taiwan, Russia, Bulgaria, Croatia

Japan

1

Hungary

Slovakia

0

Japan is one of the countries with the fewest neighbors along with Slovakia.

コロナの感染状況の状態遷移確率を計算してみた

世界の週ごと国ごとの感染状況を4のべき乗で9段階に分類して、2月23日から5月9日までの11週間について、状態遷移確率を計算してみた。

例えば日本は、4月22日に3日平均感染確認数が256を超えたので、以降Class-5(256以上1024未満)に分類されるが、Class-5の国々がClass-4に戻れる確率は8.3%しかない というように見る。逆にClass-5の国々がさらに進んでClass-6以上に進む確率は、ちょうど倍の16.6%(=15.8%+0.8%)ある。

コロナは「行きはよいよい、帰りは怖い」世界なのだ。

ちなみに、日本を地方単位で捉えると、東京・大阪・北海道がClass-4で、それ以外の地域はClass-3以下だ。

状態遷移確率計算のもとになった実数値と、具体的にどの国がどの状態にあるかの表を添付しておく。