{"id":1371,"date":"2020-05-30T09:59:34","date_gmt":"2020-05-30T00:59:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/?p=1371"},"modified":"2021-09-22T08:55:45","modified_gmt":"2021-09-21T23:55:45","slug":"%e3%80%8c%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e3%81%ab%e3%81%8a%e3%81%91%e3%82%8bk%e5%80%a4%e3%81%ae%e6%8e%a8%e7%a7%bb%e3%81%ab%e3%81%a4%e3%81%84%e3%81%a6%e3%80%8d%ef%bc%88%e6%8a%9c%e7%b2%8b%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/?p=1371","title":{"rendered":"\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308bK\u5024\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u300d\uff08\u629c\u7c8b\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u3053\u306e\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u306f\u3001\u300cK \u5024\u3067\u8aad\u307f\u89e3\u304fCOVID-19\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u72b6\u6cc1\u3068\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u300d<\/a>\u304b\u3089\u306e\u629c\u7c8b\u3067\u3059\u3002\u8a73\u7d30\u306f\u4e0a\u8a18\u8ad6\u6587\u3092\u5fa1\u4e00\u8aad\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u304a\u52e7\u3081\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002
\u306a\u304a\u3001K\u5024\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u89e3\u8aac\u52d5\u753b\u3082\u3053\u3061\u3089<\/a>\u306b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u65e5\u672c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308bK\u5024\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\u3067\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304a\u308a\u65e5\u672c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b K \u5024\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u306f\u6975\u3081\u3066\u5b89\u5b9a\u3067\u3001\u30e8\u30fc\u30ed\u30c3\u30d1\u306e\u3044\u304f\u3064\u304b\u306e\u56fd\u3067\u898b\u3089\u308c\u305f\u3088\u3046\u306a\u793e\u4f1a\u6d3b\u52d5\u306e\u5236\u9650\u7b49\u306e\u65bd\u7b56\u306b\u3088\u308b\u611f\u67d3\u53ce\u675f\u901f\u5ea6\u306e\u5897\u52a0\u3082\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u3067\u898b\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u611f\u67d3\u518d\u62e1\u5927\u306e\u5146\u5019\u3082\u898b\u3089\u308c\u306a\u3044\u30024 \u6708 3 \u65e5\u304b\u3089 24 \u65e5\u306b\u304b\u3051\u3066\u306f\u3001\u50be\u304d\u304c-0.0283\u306e\u76f4\u7dda\u3067\u3088\u304f\u8fd1\u4f3c\u3055\u308c\u3001\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u3082 k=0.9185 \u306e\u4e88\u60f3\u7dda\u306b\u6cbf\u3063\u3066\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u307e\u307e\u9806\u8abf\u306a\u63a8\u79fb\u304c\u7d99\u7d9a\u3059\u308c\u3070\u30015 \u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u306b\u306f\u591a\u304f\u306e\u56fd\u3067\u611f\u67d3\u53ce\u675f\u5ba3\u8a00\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u3067\u3042\u308bK=0.05\u306b\u9054\u3059\u308b\u3067\u3042\u308d\u3046\u3002
\u6b21\u306e\u56f3 3 \u306b\u76f4\u7dda\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c8\u3001\u305d\u306e\u30d5\u30a3\u30c3\u30c8\u7d50\u679c\u304b\u3089\u6c42\u3081\u305f 4 \u6708 25 \u65e5\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u4e88\u60f3\u66f2\u7dda\u3068\u89b3\u6e2c\u5024\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002d=0 \u304c 4 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3057\u3001d=30 \u304c 5 \u6708 1 \u65e5\u306b\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Changes in K value in Japan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As shown in the paper, the transition of K value in Japan is extremely stable. There is no increase seen in the United States nor an infection rate convergence due to measures such as the restriction of social activities seen in some European countries. There is no sign of such re-infection. From April 3 to 24, the slope is well approximated by a straight line of -0.0283, and the subsequent trends have also followed the expected line of k = 0.9185. If the situation continues smoothly, it will reach K = 0.05, in mid-May , the level at which declarations of convergence of infection have been issued in many countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3 below shows a straight line fit, the forecast curve obtained from the fit results and the observed values after April 25 . d = 0 corresponds to April 1st and d = 30 corresponds to May 1st.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u3053\u306e\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306e\u5185\u5bb9\u306f\u3001\u300cK \u5024\u3067\u8aad\u307f\u89e3\u304fCOVID-19\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u72b6\u6cc1\u3068\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u300d\u304b\u3089\u306e\u629c\u7c8b\u3067\u3059\u3002\u8a73\u7d30\u306f\u4e0a\u8a18\u8ad6\u6587\u3092\u5fa1\u4e00\u8aad\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u304a\u52e7\u3081\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u306a\u304a\u3001K\u5024\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u89e3\u8aac\u52d5\u753b\u3082\u3053\u3061\u3089\u306b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u65e5\u672c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308bK\u5024\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066 … \u7d9a\u304d\u3092\u8aad\u3080 \u300c\u65e5\u672c\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308bK\u5024\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u300d\uff08\u629c\u7c8b\uff09<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1371"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1371"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1371\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1378,"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1371\/revisions\/1378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/mkitaoka.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}